For those who haven’t seen it – here is the latest AdMedia On a screen near you – March Edition
Future predictions for online advertising – tsunami or ripples?
Much like the Ministry for Civil Defence, we in the online advertising game feel compelled to warn you about the internet medium’s capacity for seismic shifts in the media core. We’ve talked long and hard about the fact that the huge roller will come. Many of us may have thought we’ve seen its crest, but Josh Borthwick asks has it all been too early? Is 2010 really the year for online advertising in New Zealand, or is this another one metre swell dribbling through our industry unnoticed?
Last year online advertising grew 10.6% in the toughest economic times we’ve had in many of our lifetimes, some say since the great depression. A great deal of us in all facets of media experienced hardships, but it would seem that in this instance online had a bit of a coming of age. As it was in the great depression, New Zealand wasn’t hit as hard as the USA and UK. Godzone wasn’t as far ahead with digital advertising’s total share of media revenue as these markets and therefore still had plenty of room for growth.
Anecdotally more brands entered the market than previous years and those that were already there increased spends, generally at the expense of other media. <Update> It seemed almost fait accompli that online would have overtaken magazine advertising spend in 2009, when the ASA figures were released last week. As it turned out – online was within a whisker of pipping mags. The big increases in online advertising spend showed marketers were driven to online after being forced to think differently, get better returns on their media investments and follow media consumption patterns of their customers. Customers who put the breaks on spending and pushed all the way to the floor on free information and entertainment.
So what’s next on the horizon for the medium? In the UK it overtook television spend and it seems reasonable to assume it’ll overtake magazine and radio here in 2010. Just a 15% increase (and remember it’s been increasing at least 20% in previous years) and it’ll only take a minor slip in total revenue for radio to be left gasping on the sidelines. What of print and television? It’s plausible that online could over take both, but Zenith Optimedia’s worldwide predictions are for it to have about 16% of total media spend by 2012 while television, possibly in conjunction with web as the lines blur, will grow back from it’s recent dip to around 35%. Magna Global are more bullish with their forecast of a 21% share by the same period.
